A “Climate Disaster” in Copenhagen?

As the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen approaches, some are already expressing skepticism about what can be achieved there this December. According to an article by Stephen Slingerland of the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency, Copenhagen will likely be a “climate disaster,” unless underlying national drivers such as development, energy policy, and national security are considered in the negotiations.

“It is implicitly assumed that all parties in the negotiation are motivated by the fear for adverse effects of climate change in the future,” writes Slingerland. “However…in practice, these positions are determined by far more factors, in particular energy policy considerations. Given these strong links between climate and energy policies, the question is whether a limitation of the negotiations to climate change is wise.”

Slingerland notes that the “development driver” is partly factored into the negotiations, but that other important drivers remain to be incorporated. “…It would be completely new to extend the negotiations also to the security of supply and security of demand considerations of individual nations. At present, 80% of energy demand consists of fossil fuels. These fuels will most likely play a dominant role in the global energy sector for decades to come. Including these drivers into the climate change negotiations would inevitably imply increased multilateral interference in fossil fuel markets, and in particular increased cooperation between fossil fuel exporting and importing countries.” Read the full article here.